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UCL Home  /  Geography  /  News & Events  /  News  /  News Archive  /  2010  /  February 2010  /  ENFOLD: Explaining, modelliNg, and FOrecasting gLobal Dynamics

ENFOLD: Explaining, modelliNg, and FOrecasting gLobal Dynamics

Pablo Mateos leads migration strand of UCL CASA-led £2.9 million EPSRC project

ENFOLD: Explaining, modelliNg, and FOrecasting gLobal Dynamics

ENFOLD is a multidisciplinary, five year modelling project funded by the UK Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC: £2.9 million FEC) spanning seven UCL departments. It will develop new forms of complexity science to address the most difficult of human problems: those involving global change where there is no organised constituency and whose agencies are largely regarded as being ineffective. ENFOLD addresses problems arising from the fact that that global systems tend to be treated in isolation from one another. Their characteristically unexpected dynamics are thus due to the aspects of coupling and integration between them that are all too often ignored. To demonstrate these dynamics and develop appropriate policy responses, ENFOLD will study four related global systems: trade, migration, security and development aid. Integrated and coupled models will be developed, whose dynamics can be described in the language of complexity theory, including chaos, turbulence, bifurcations, catastrophes, and phase transition. The programme will apply spatial interaction models to trade and migration; reaction diffusion to conflicts and terrorism; and network models to international trade, migration and crime. These models will be extended to incorporate new events, such as the emergence of new entities, including countries, coupling them together in diverse ways. A generic framework will ultimately be developed for a coupled global dynamics spanning many spatial and temporal scales, pertaining to different systems whose behaviours can be both quantitatively and qualitatively simulated. Models will be developed which incorporate all these ideas into a global intelligence system to inform global policy makers about future events. Several UK government departments as well as global businesses are partners in this project.

The project is led by Sir Alan Wilson at the UCL Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis (CASA). Dr. Pablo Mateos is one of the co-investigators and will lead the migration strand of the project, based at UCL Geography's Migration Research Unit. Professor John Salt will be an adviser to the project.


  • Professor Sir Alan Wilson FBA, FRS (CASA), PI
  • Professor Mike Batty CBE, FBA, FRS (CASA)
  • Professor Frank Smith FRS (Mathematics)
  • Professor Stephen Bishop (Mathematics)
  • Dr Francesca Medda (Transport Studies)
  • Dr Pablo Mateos (Geography)
  • Dr Alex Braithwaite (Political Science)
  • Dr Alastair Turner (Political Science)
  • Dr Shane Johnson (Jill Dando Institute)
  • Dr Sean Hanna (Bartlett School)


For more details:


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